Bitcoin Treasury Bear Market May Be Nearing Its End

Shares in Bitcoin treasury companies could be nearing the end of a period of dampened price action after an investment firm said it closed its short position against Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holding company.

Kynikos Associates founder James Chanos said on Sunday that his investment firm unwound its short position on Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) and a long position on Bitcoin (BTC) at the start of the trading day on Friday.

“The Bitcoin treasury company bear market is gradually coming to an end,” The Bitcoin Bond Company CEO, Pierre Rochard, said in response.

Chanos said that shares in Strategy are down about 50% from their 2025 high and that the company’s market Net Asset Value (mNAV) has compressed to 1.23x.

“It is prudent to cover this trade with mNAV below 1.25x, having dropped from ~2.0x as recently as July 2025,” Chanos wrote in a note.

He added that MSTR’s implied premium, its enterprise value minus the value of its 641,205 BTC stash, has fallen from about $70 billion in July to $15 billion, suggesting the company may now be better valued.

While MSTR may still experience more mNAV compression, particularly if it issues more common equity, “the thesis has largely played out,” Chanos said.

“This is the kind of signal you want to see for a reversal,” said Rochard.

Shares in many of the 200 publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets have tumbled in recent months, which has led some analysts to doubt the sustainability of Bitcoin treasury strategies.

MSTR, Metaplanet down massively from mid-year

Strategy has been the hardest hit in total value terms, with its market cap falling over 43% from $122.1 billion in July to $69.5 billion as of Friday.